Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data

by Kiesha Prem, Alex R. Cook, Mark Jit

Heterogeneities in contact networks have a major effect in determining whether a pathogen can become epidemic or persist at endemic levels. Epidemic models that determine which interventions can successfully prevent an outbreak need to account for social structure and mixing patterns. Contact patterns vary across age and locations (e.g. home, work, and school), and including them as predictors in transmission dynamic models of pathogens that spread socially will improve the models’ realism. Data from population-based contact diaries in eight European countries from the POLYMOD study were projected to 144 other countries using a Bayesian hierarchical model that estimated the proclivity of age-and-location-specific contact patterns for the countries, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Household level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for nine lower-income countries and socio-demographic factors from several on-line databases for 152 countries were used to quantify similarity of countries to estimate contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations for countries for which no contact data are available, accounting for demographic structure, household structure where known, and a variety of metrics including workforce participation and school enrolment. Contacts are highly assortative with age across all countries considered, but pronounced regional differences in the age-specific contacts at home were noticeable, with more inter-generational contacts in Asian countries than in other settings. Moreover, there were variations in contact patterns by location, with work-place contacts being least assortative. These variations led to differences in the effect of social distancing measures in an age structured epidemic model. Contacts have an important role in transmission dynamic models that use contact rates to characterize the spread of contact-transmissible diseases. This study provides estimates of mixing patterns for societies for which contact data such as POLYMOD are not yet available.

via PLOS Computational Biology http://ift.tt/2jkX57X

johnny-dynamo: Reservoir Bots by Samiel

I found this sketchbook in a restaurant and It may be impossible but I want to find the author.

The sketchbook was found in El Albaicín, Granada, Spain and I think the artist isn’t Spanish, maybe a Chinese tourist or someone who are learning Chinese but who knows u_u

In the drawings you can see some monuments of differents sites of Spain, that’s why I think she/he could be a tourist D:

I already tweeted it and a lot of people are sharing (all my love for you guys<3) but I want to try to find him/her here too


F.A.Q:

– 

Did you ask the restaurant staff if they know it?: I’m the restaurant staff, I work there and we can’t remember who is the owner, sorry

– Did you use the reverse image search in Google?: Yes, I do and got nothing u_u

Can you check the CCTV?: Em… no…  We don’t have it in the terrace and my boss would never let me see them

– 

What you could do is put a note at the door of the restaurant saying ‘have you lost…?’ : I’m the only one in the restautrant who cares about this and again my boss would never let me do that.

– 

If they are a tourist and you just found it recently, they are probably still travelling and might not check their social media as often: Yes, I know, but maybe someone can

recognize his/her style or something 

Please, just share and help me to find him/her ;_;

Thank you!

via Freakonomicon http://ift.tt/2t7xLoZ